Building betting football patterns from suspicious matches

» Suspicious matches

Every genuine bookmaker has an inside team of professionals to look out for "abnormal betting behavior" and have the betting risk management market under control. This is when unusually large amounts of money are punted, or when the betting pattern is heavily skewed towards one side.

This is a tell-tale sign that something may be going on. So the bookmakers have to take measures to prevent themselves from falling victims to match-fixers. The first thing they usually do is to lower the odds and then to raise the bookie margin. Sometimes the bookies might limit the maximum stake to a smaller amount than they usually accept for that particular league. There are positions when some of them stopped accepting bets anymore on specific games, especially on games from the lower leagues in many countries at the end of the football season.

There are few international institutions which provide expertise in the prevention of the match fixing areas. FederBet is one of them and their "Annual fixed matches - report 2016" gave us more than 200 "suspicious matches" which took place between July 2015 and June 2016. More than 60% of them were soccer/football related, followed by tennis 20% and basketball, volleyball, handball etc.

The good news is that we did monitor and archive more than 75%-80% of the above events. If we do a back history research we could build various patterns emerging from changing of the pre-game odds based on the "suspicious matches" reported by FederBet. Of course, even so, there is no 100% certainty but the probabilities of certain results (given a certain set of odds condition) are very high and there are money making opportunities to capitalize on.

We are showing below the pre-game odds movements graphs with similar patterns for 3 soccer matches from different leagues (Portugal - LigaPro; Greece - Super League and UEFA - U21) which have been mentioned by FederBet as "suspicious matches" in 2016.

Pregame betting odds

1. Clube Oriental Lisboa vs Leixoes
24 April 2016, 15:00 UTC
Soccer » Portugal - LigaPro
Suspicious for: Leixoes to win
Final score: 0-1

2. Panthrakikos vs PAS Giannina
28 February 2016 15:15 UTC
Soccer » Greece - Super League
Suspicious for: PAS Giannina to win & Over 2,5
Final score: 2-4

3. Malta U21 vs Montenegro U21
23 March 2016, 17:00 UTC
Soccer » UEFA - U21 European Championship Qualifiers
Suspicious for: Montenegro Win 1st half
Final score: 0-1 (0-1)

You could search for others "suspicious matches" here at the FederBet 2016 report and build your own betting patterns using our search button event.

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