Suspicious tennis betting patterns and betting strategy alert

» Betting strategies

The ATP World Tour 250 event, Winston-Salem Open is the last men’s tournament on the US Open Series prior to the US Open. It was on 20 August 2017 when the Brazilian tennis player Thiago Monteiro faced the Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov on the main show court in the first round of the Winston-Salem Open. At that time, Dolgopolov was #63 ATP (former #13 ranking) while Monteiro was 114 ATP ranked. Pregame open odds offers were 1.26 for Dolgopolov and 4.21 for Monteiro, with little movements prior 2 hours before starting time. Then, for about 85 minutes, from 16:24 UTC to 17:49 UTC the moneyline odds for Monteiro to win the match dropped from 4.20 to 2.02 in about 20 steps (with possible profit decrease more than 66%) when at that time Pinnacle remove betting offers for this match. Pinnacle sportbook decreased the maximum stake (on Monteiro to win the match) from 2500 US$ to 1500 US$ in the (17:38 - 17:42) time UTC interval and the bettors had to re-bet several times if wanted to bet more.

Pregame betting odds

1. Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
20 August 2017, 19:10 UTC
Tennis » ATP Winston-Salem Open - R1
Suspicious for: Thiago Moura Monteiro to win the match
Final score: 6-3 6-3




Dolgpolov said that he was giving his best effort to win the match but he was physically weak. Investigation made by the anti-corruption body "Tennis Investigation Unit" brings no sanction to Dolgopolov but the question still remains: was the match fixed or manipulated, or the tennis betting market triggered the world's sportsbooks avalanche ? The truth is way behind closed doors and nowadays is history.

Could we be alerted in real time regarding this suspicious pre-game tennis betting market patterns ?

We have done a back archive searching for all pre-game tennis matches using our unique custimizable dropping odds function between 1-st July 2017 to 31-th July 2018.

The following inputs settings were used:



Dropping date: 1 July 2017 (day by day until 31 July 2018)
Sport: Tennis
Leagues: All
Events: Any
Before event: 500 (minutes)
Dropping period: 100 (minutes)
Dropping profit: 35 (%)
Dropping odd: 0.4
Minimum dropped odd: 1.5 (EUR odd style)
Maximum dropped odd: 2.1 (EUR odd style)

We select only tennis events where maximum stake allowed was at least US$1000 for 5 minutes or more (no matter what odds was).
The dropping search filter gave us the following 21 tennis matches:

17.JUL.2017 >> ATP Bastad - Qualifiers Federico Delbonis vs Stephane Robert
Moneyline: Delbonis >> 3.500(initial odd)->2.000(dropped odd) >> (60.00% dropping profit) >> (1.500 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Robert >> +4.5 (initial line)->+5.0 (raised line)
Score:6-2 6-3

24.JUL.2017 >> WTA Nanchang - Doubles Jiang + Tang vs Duan + Wang
Moneyline: Jiang & Tang >> 2.860(initial odd)->2.030(dropped odd) >> (44.62% dropping profit) >> (0.830 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Duan & Wang >> no information
Score:7-6 6-2

05.AUG.2017 >> ATP Washington - Doubles Bryan + Bryan vs Kubot + Melo
Moneyline: Bryan & Bryan >> 1.980(initial odd)->1.556(dropped odd) >> (43.27% dropping profit) >> (0.424 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Kubot & Melo >> no information
Score:6-7 4-6

20.AUG.2017 >> ATP Winston-Salem Open - R1 Thiago Monteiro vs Alexandr Dolgopolov
Moneyline: Monteiro >> 4.020(initial odd)->2.020(dropped odd) >> (66.22% dropping profit) >> (2.000 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Dolgopolov >> -4.0 (initial line)->-1.5 (raised line)
Score:6-3 6-3

20.AUG.2017 >> ATP Winston-Salem Open - R1 T. Monteiro +1.5 sets vs A. Dolgopolov -1.5 sets
Monteiro +1.5 sets >> 2.160(initial odd)->1.518(dropped odd) >> (55.34% dropping profit) >> (0.642 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Dolgopolov >> -4.0 (initial line)->-1.5 (raised line)
Score:6-3 6-3

25.AUG.2017 >> ATP Challenger Manerbio - QF Guillermo Lopez vs Oscar Otte
Moneyline: Lopez >> 8.140(initial odd)->2.02(dropped odd) >> (85.71% dropping profit) >> (6.120 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Otte >> -1.5 (initial line)->-1.5 (unchanged line)
Score:7-6 6-0

29.AUG.2017 >> ATP Challenger Quito - R1 Christian Lindell vs Maxime Hamou
Moneyline: Hamou >> 2.150(initial odd)->1.633(dropped odd) >> (44.96% dropping profit) >> (0.517 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Lindell >> -2.5 (initial line)->+5.0 (raised line)
Score:5-7 0-0 (Lindell retired)

09.OCT.2017 >> WTA Linz - Doubles Irigoyen + Lister vs Golubic + Jurak
Moneyline: Golubic & Jurak >> 2.820(initial odd)->1.500(dropped odd) >> (72.53% dropping profit) >> (1.32 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Irigoyen & Lister >> no information
Score:6-4 2-6 11-9

29.DEC.2017 >> ATP Mubadala - SF Andy Murray vs Roberto Agut
Moneyline: Agut >> 2.500(initial odd)->1.870(dropped odd) >> (42.00% dropping profit) >> (0.630 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Murray >> -1.5 (initial line)->+1.5 (raised line)
Score:2-6 0-0 (Murray retired)

07.JAN.2018 >> WTA Apia International - R1 Elena Vesnina vs Lara Arruabarrena
Moneyline: Vesnina >> 2.060(initial odd)->1.565(dropped odd) >> (46.70% dropping profit) >> (0.495 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Arruabarrena >> no information
Score:6-2 6-2

15.JAN.2018 >> ATP Challenger Koblenz - Qualifiers Peter Torebko vs Sriram Balaji
Moneyline: Balaji >> 2.420(initial odd)->1.704(dropped odd) >> (50.42% dropping profit) >> (0.716 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Torebko >> -2.0 (initial line)->+2.0 (raised line)
Score:1-6 0-3 (Torebko retired)

03.FEB.2018 >> Davis Cup - Doubles Herbert + Mahut vs Middelkoop + Rojer
Moneyline: Middelkoop & Rojer >> 3.180(initial odd)->2.070(dropped odd) >> (50.92% dropping profit) >> (1.110 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Herbert & Mahut >> no information
Score:7-6 6-3 6-7 7-6

03.FEB.2018 >> ATP Ecuador Open - Qualifiers Alessandro Giannessi vs Ignacio Londero
Moneyline: Giannessi >> 2.540(initial odd)->1.556(dropped odd) >> (63.90% dropping profit) >> (0.984 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Londero >> +3.0 (initial line)->+3.5 (raised line)
Score:6-4 6-4

04.FEB.2018 >> ATP Open Sud de France - Qualifiers Matteo Berrettini vs Marco Trungelliti
Moneyline: Trungelliti >> 2.930(initial odd)->1.787(dropped odd) >> (59.22% dropping profit) >> (1.143 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Berrettini >> +3.5 (initial line)->+3.5 (unchanged line)
Score:3-6 6-3 3-6

10.FEB.2018 >> ATP Buenos Aires - Qualifiers Marco Cecchinato vs Guido Andreozzi
Moneyline: Andreozzi >> 2.390(initial odd)->1.840(dropped odd) >> (39.57% dropping profit) >> (0.550 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Cecchinato >> -1.5 (initial line)->+1.5 (raised line)
Score:6-4 6-3

24.FEB.2018 >> ATP Challenger Kyoto - SF Tim Puetz vs Jordan Thompson
Moneyline: Puetz >> 2.490(initial odd)->1.952(dropped odd) >> (36.11% dropping profit) >> (0.538 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Thompson >> -1.5 (initial line)->+1.5 (raised line)
Score:6-3 5-7 4-6

16.MAR.2018 >> ATP Challenger Irving - QF Alex de Minaur vs Steve Johnson
Moneyline: Minaur >> 2.490(initial odd)->1.901(dropped odd) >> (39.53% dropping profit) >> (0.589 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Johnson >> +1.5 (initial line)->-2.5 (dropped line)
Score:2-6 2-6

26.APR.2018 >> ATP Challenger Francavilla - R16 Tallon Griekspoor vs Renzo Olivo
Moneyline: Griekspoor >> 2.200(initial odd)->1.775(dropped odd) >> (35.42% dropping profit) >> (0.425 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Olivo >> -1.5 (initial line)->+2.0 (raised line)
Score:7-6 6-4

04.MAY.2018 >> WTA Madrid - Qualifiers Magda Linette vs Sofia Kenin
Moneyline: Kenin >> 2.160(initial odd)->1.690(dropped odd) >> (40.52% dropping profit) >> (0.470 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Linette >> +2.5 (initial line)->+2.0 (dropped line)
Score:6-3 6-4

14.MAY.2018 >> WTA Rome - Doubles Errani + Trevisan vs Peng + Wang
Moneyline: Errani & Trevisan >> 2.650(initial odd)->2.020(dropped odd) >> (38.18% dropping profit) >> (0.63 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Peng & Wang >> no information
Score:7-5 7-6

26.JUN.2018 >> WTA Wimbledon - Qualifiers Priscilla Hon vs Anhelina Kalinina
Moneyline: Kalinina >> 2.110(initial odd)->1.559(dropped odd) >> (49.64% dropping profit) >> (0.551 dropping EUR odd)
AH games: Hon >> +3.5 (initial line)->+1.5 (dropped line)
Score:6-3 7-6

Conclusions:
1. When we are taking into consideration only alerts given by dropping filter we would have 14 wins and 7 losses.
2. If we consider in addition information regarding the opposite player AH line movements, we would have 10 wins and 2 losses when other participant will have AH line moving up (raised) or remain unchanged. We do not count events where's no information regarding the opposite AH games - line movements. This is the best practice in our opinion.
3. There would be 3 losses when the opposite AH games-line were dropped.

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Read more about the suspicious pre-game betting market patterns for the Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Alexandr Dolgopolov tennis match: NYTimes, BBC or SportDW